(First published at Israelnationalnews.com)
It is prudent to be skeptical of anything Donald Trump says, whether it pertains to his “landslide” electoral victories or his sundry “peace” deals across the globe. This skepticism is triply warranted regarding the highly touted peace deal with Iran whose details are still largely unknown, speculative, fanciful, and exceedingly fluid. Undoubtedly, as the week progresses towards a signing ceremony, it will become increasingly clear that there is almost no meeting of the minds, except on one issue. Trump will boast that due to his remarkable negotiating skills, he has successfully pressured Iran into reopening the Straits of Hormuz, which of course were open to navigation before the current hostilities began on February 28.
In other words, Trump’s conduct of the war induced Iran to close the Straits, plunging the world’s markets into turmoil and driving up the price of oil precipitously. His management of the war including, it must be said without any glee, the underperformance of the US military that failed to reopen the Straits, has succeeded only in restoring the status quo ante with one major exception: Iran now realizes that it controls the Straits and can open, close, and regulate them with impunity, and full immunity from any consequences.
Oh, yes, one more thing. Although details are still hazy, it is safe to say that Iran certainly expects that in exchange for its agreement to reopen the Straits (whose closure was a blatant violation of international law) it will receive multibillions of dollars of financial relief that will revive its battered economy and facilitate its support of terror across the region.
Trump’s capitulation, no matter how he spins it, is truly Obama worthy, and Iran’s mockery of Trump and its characterization of the American “defeat” will irritate him no end, if not derail the agreement entirely. Personal pique is one of the most compelling factors driving American diplomacy in the Trump era. The irony, it should be underscored, is that Trump at his worst and dumbest is better than Biden at his best and Obama at his brightest. His visceral support for Israel is still present but we need not join in his delusions.
Peace is not coming. Iran is not yet defeated, but it is greatly weakened, its vulnerabilities exploited and still exposed. The current war was necessary and worthwhile, even if Trump for his own reasons is aborting it, eschewing victory and reverting to the West’s embrace since World War II of stalemate instead of success, of kicking the can down the road in place of resolve and resolution, of appeasing evil because it has abandoned any understanding of objective morality, of good and evil. Europe’s amorality, coupled with its failed pursuit of material prosperity, placed it on a trajectory towards its own extinction. Obama’s statecraft was not much different, and now Trump’s partakes of the same.
If the whole point of life is to make money and as much as possible, then war with Iran or any other evil entity is bad for business. Indeed, even acknowledging the power of ideology is counterproductive and so it is best to deny that any nation, including Iran, has any exterminationist motivation, and so that doesn’t exist even if it does. In Trump world, unwelcome facts are simply ignored, and harping on them is considered rude.
The materialist will never comprehend the power of religious ideology and certainly not the depth of religion-based hatred. The fact of its existence is dismissed as “fake news.” And Trump has been both the victim of fake news and one of its leading disseminators.
American and Israeli interests were bound to diverge at a certain point, and that point has arrived. Iran’s threat to Israel and the United States is existential but the US has the luxury of ignoring Iran for a longer period than Israel can. The fact that the Iranian regime has spent the better part of forty seven years humiliating the United States is of little moment. Iran has been governed during the last (almost) half century by essentially one regime with a depraved but consistent ideology, while the US has had eight presidents of different ideologies, backgrounds, objectives, and approaches. It is no wonder that Trump wishes to cut bait and run. Iran is weakened, for sure, but while it threatens Israel today, its threat to the US will be some other president’s problem. Obama’s policy was literally kicking the Iran problem down the road. For all his bluster and protestations, that is Trump’s policy today, maybe not tomorrow, but probably again the day after.
Any sentient observer realizes that Trump, wearing his Obama mask, has succumbed to Iran’s hoary tactics of endless negotiation, conceding and then retracting, agreeing to a final deal and then insisting on one last concession from its interlocutors that undoes much of what was agreed to, and then not abiding by any agreement it does sign. If Trump really believes that Iran will ever willingly divest itself of its nuclear program or materials, then he is now, officially, the most dangerous man in the free world, not its leader. Iran, much like Trump did repeatedly in his years as a real estate developer, will sign something, and then weasel, haggle, threaten, litigate, and not pay up. He might even know this, not that it matters. As the American novelist Upton Sinclair once wrote, “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it.” In Trump’s case, it is not his salary but his world view, his ambition, and his hubris that requires him to look away from Iran’s aggressions and its war against America.
Ultimately, it doesn’t matter if Trump allows himself to be deceived because the war is unpopular in the United States, or because he fears a Republican defeat in the midterms, or because he hoped to wage history’s first casualty free war, or because the American military has failed to achieve its war objectives despite the hype and spin. What does matter is that the US under Donald Hussein Obama allowed Iran to gain the upper hand in the Straits of Hormuz, could not reopen it despite the seeming disparity between the American military might and Iran’s decimated forces, and could even defend its own bases in the Gulf Arab states and the Gulf Arab states themselves. That does not bode well for them, or, for that matter, for Taiwan, or other US allies.
As for us in Israel, we should be grateful for past, present, and future assistance from the United States, and certainly for their actions in the last two years that facilitated many of our successes, and particularly the debilitation of all our enemies and the projection of Israeli power on every front and into enemy territory. Sometimes, as with the biblical (and perhaps current) Amalek, the task of our generation is to weaken them when they can’t yet be defeated (as in Shemot 17:13). But we should not delude ourselves into thinking that our interests with the US are identical. We certainly should not constrain our actions against enemies who wish to destroy our State and murder Jews because of an agreement made between the US and Iran to which we were not a party and in which our interests were not primary or even secondary considerations. That would be insane.
No nation waives its right of self-defense and no self-respecting nation allows its right of self-defense to be theoretical and not actual. This might require publicly calling out Mr. Trump and asking him “which American border towns would he allow to be rocketed, and how many US citizens would he allow to be murdered without any response because of geopolitical considerations?”
That question neatly frames our dilemma, our options, and the untenability of demanding our restraint. We need not like Trump wearing an Obama mask and we need not acquiesce to its broader ramifications. Trump does not like war, and in truth, no sane person seeks war. But as George Santayana wrote, “only the dead have seen the end of war.” That is neither our fate nor that of the world, until the coming of Moshiach. Until then, we fight evil, even alone, even when the blusterers are tempted to slink away when the going gets tough, even when they are snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and boastfully tweeting about it.
As little is real in Trump world, the immediate future and even the signing of a deal is uncertain. But in his kowtowing to evil, his abandonment of regime change and hope for the Iranian people, and his fantasy of forcing Israel to accept an agreement with Iran that inevitably leads it to a nuclear bomb, Donald John Trump is more like Barack Hussein Obama than he cares to admit.



