(First published at Israelnationalnews.com)
The harshest appurtenance in any home is usually the mirror, which never lies. Let us hope the White House has several into which President Trump can gaze and reflect. His efforts to shift blame for the Republicans’ catastrophic defeat in the midterm elections from himself to anyone or anything else are vacuous, even comical. Most presidents similarly situated have accepted responsibility for the fate of their party. Not this one. Surely, he who for years touted the victories of politicians he endorsed (even when they ran unopposed) could endeavor some explanation of why his endorsements backfired this time.
According to Mr. Trump, why were the Republicans routed?
The war was unpopular. The war was unpopular, albeit necessary, but it was the flawed conduct of the war that made it unpopular. Trump was simply incapable of conveying to the American people the importance of the war for the United States and for the world. Israeli political scientist Gadi Taub said this week that “Trump’s policies are those of a seasoned politician, but the way he communicates them is that of a child in kindergarten.”
The war became unpopular because Trump kept promising that it would be over in a “week,” “two weeks,” “no more than a month,” before or after the midterms, that the US had completely destroyed Iran’s army, navy, and missile capacity (even as they kept harassing ships) when the US had not, and that Iran “wanted a deal badly” (when they weren’t even negotiating). Trump apparently never considered that Iran would mine and close the Straits of Hormuz, which any elementary Pentagon war game would have suggested as a likely response. But Trump has no need of experts. Hence the stalemate and the unpopularity of the war.
Trump challenged Iran, emboldened tens of thousands of Iranians to protest the regime because “help is on the way,” but it wasn’t they were slaughtered. He then had Iran on the ropes after Israel’s aerial assault and let them off, lacking the killer’s instinct but possessing the bully’s certainty that his victim will soon capitulate. But the ideologue will never surrender to the bully. Trump blinked. If the war was unpopular, Trump’s conduct of it made it so.
The Republican candidates were ineffective. But Trump hand selected so many of them! He torpedoed the campaign of incumbent Jon Cornyn of Texas, and he foisted the novice Darline Graham on South Carolina. And others. In Cornyn’s place, Trump championed an unpopular, ethically challenged scoundrel who at least was loyal to him. These were his people, and to run from that is shameless. The MAGA movement turns out to have been little more than a personality cult, and when the people turned on the cult leader and dissented from certain policy choices, the charade was revealed. He can blame the candidates – but the mirror also has whom to blame.
And to assume all is going well because his rallies are well attended is narcissistic and shallow. The rallies were entertainment, often devoid of substance, boring a second time, and what made news was usually some silly comment about people’s body parts.
“If I was on the ballot, we would have won in a landslide like the last three elections.” Well, it is true Trump wasn’t on the ballot but he campaigned as if he was. Otherwise, why campaign? But – shouldn’t someone be challenging him on this? – Trump has never won a single landslide. He barely lost the popular vote in 2016, he lost the popular vote and the electoral college in 2020 (if there is any evidence to the contrary, he should adduce it), and squeaked to victory in 2024, winning the popular vote for the first time but still garnering less the 50% of the total vote. Landslide? Hardly, unless you just redefine the word.
In 2026, Trump was a drag on the ticket. By January, elected Republicans will be running from him if they hope to advance in 2028.
Fox News interviewed the opposition. This should not even require a response. A media organization that serves the public should present diverse viewpoints to its audience. (This is a lesson that Israel’s channels 11, 12, and 13 could learn.)
It is Israel’s fault. This is one of JD Vance’s contributions to the analysis, stopping just short of saying that Israel dragged the US into war, which is the contention of some Vance allies. History should not forget that Israel fought alone for the first eleven days of the twelve-day war, and once air superiority was won, the US sent its long-range bomber to strafe the nuclear facilities. It was then that Trump foolishly decided to stop the war – on the cusp of victory.
President Trump inadvertently strengthened Vance’s argument by blurting out on Election Day Eve that he will no longer “give Israel $4 billion a year.” Well, this notion should be parsed and properly understood. The $4B the US purports to “give” to Israel is 0.000571% of the annual US budget, and less than half a percent of Israel’s budget. (The US spends three times as much maintaining its military bases in Germany eighty years after World War II ended and in Korea seventy years after the Korean War ended.)
It is certainly appreciated – but the following is not well understood, not by our enemies in America, and perhaps not even by Trump.
The $4B is not “given” to Israel. Israel is given a credit of $4B that can only be spent in the US purchasing American weapons. It is not $4B in cash that Israelis spend on falafel but the $4B is actually “given” to Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Caterpillar, and the other 250 American defense contractors who rely on this money and employ thousands of Americans. Some of those companies have present contracts with Israel and are expecting this subsidy to continue.
Israel would be better off without this perception – but that should also come at a price.
As Ambassador Yoram Ettinger frequently points out, the US’s investment for the $4B annual credit is repaid 1000%. For example, a decade ago the USAF’s F-35 was considered a dead letter, unworkable, and unsellable because of design flaws. Congress almost mothballed it – but then Israel bought a fleet, redesigned it, removed the flaws, upgraded and refined it, and shared that information with the United States which incorporated that into their production. That’s a savings of multi-billion dollars in research and development, just from one vehicle, far more than Israel receives. Add to that, multiple American weapons systems that Israel has refined and improved.
Additionally, Israel provides the US invaluable intelligence in the region, as Israel does to European countries, some that are openly hostile to Israel. Well, an alliance is bilateral. Israelis do not mind the cessation of the American subsidy, and as PM Netanyahu suggested, prefers joint investments in R & D. But the US should then be prepared to pay Israel fair market value for our expertise and refinement of their weapons, as well for the intelligence we provide that saves American lives.
Indeed, the image of Israel as a hapless mendicant hurts us. The image of Israel as a proud ally helps us. A partnership suits us fine – but do not blame Israel for your mismanagement of your end of the war.
Affordability. There really is little an American president can do to lower prices except maintain supplies but he can make unforced errors that raise prices, which include, aside from the Iran War’s temporary hike, the ill-advised tariffs that – despite Trump’s bluster – has brought in relatively little revenue but upset the markets and raised the cost of living. And his boasts that “America is the hottest country in the world,” “greatest economy in American history,” “with “tens of trillions of dollars in foreign investment,” none of that is true. And people know that.
For sure, Trump erred in repeatedly referencing his vanity projects (ballroom, reflecting pool, golf courses) to people struggling to pay their bills. But he probably doesn’t see that.
The MAGA movement is over, held together by force of personality. Its former adherents now disagree vehemently on various policy positions, including Israel. Congress is likely to be paralyzed, allowing Democrats to run in 2028 on the need for a president who is aligned with Congress. And they will prevail, even if Congress spends its time impeaching Trump and investigating his family for their grifting.
One point not covered that also heralds the demise of MAGA is the reconfiguration of the American electorate. The last decades have seen out-migration from Democratic states which have become unlivable for a variety of reasons (high cost of living, high taxes, high crime rate). Millions of Americans have left blue strongholds like California, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois to live in red states like Texas, North and South Carolina, and Florida.
Guess what? They brought their politics with them. No surprise then that these red states all elected Democratic senators, governors, and representatives – and Florida’s Republicans just barely squeaked by. There has been a dramatic shift in population distribution. And the migration is one way – no one wants to live in the liberal paradises so America will look bluer and bluer and less welcoming to Israel.
Trump did so much for Israel and his rise to power so preposterous that it is impossible to see him as anything other than a providential gift. He was a messenger. He has a natural affinity for Israel that will become increasingly rare in American politics in the years ahead. We thank him and pray that he does nothing impulsively to undo his contributions of the last decade. His era is over. His MAGA movement is dead.
What isn’t? Am Yisrael Chai.



